By Peter L. Bernstein
''A lot has occurred within the monetary markets on the grounds that 1992, whilst Peter Bernstein wrote his seminal Capital principles. fortunately, Peter has taken up his facile pen back to explain those adjustments, a digital revolution within the perform of making an investment that is based seriously on complicated arithmetic, derivatives, hedging, and hyperactive buying and selling. This tremendous and eminently readable e-book is not going to be exceeded because the definitive chronicle of a very ancient era.''
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We cling to our preconceptions even when the evidence in front of us shows they are outdated. We are content being inconsistent because consistency may be too demanding. The possibility of regretting a decision dilutes our ability to make a rational decision in the first place. We often make the mistake of heeding what others say when they agree with us, even when they may know less than we do. We display a tendency to take greater risks when faced with losses than * This point and related versions of it are elaborated skillfully in Mauboussin (2006).
The wheels were beginning to turn. He started to compile a list of what he called “anomalous behaviors”—behaviors that went against the predictions of the standard models in finance. ”* A little while after he had written this paper, he met two young researchers who were familiar with Kahneman’s and Tversky’s notion that what the rational model would view as anomalous behavior is often normal behavior. It is the rationally reached decision that is the exception. 11 Thaler says he could hardly contain himself after reading this article.
There is no way to develop a definitive answer to these questions. Nevertheless, the questions themselves are too important to be dismissed without further investigation and argument. We conduct that exploration in the next chapter. qxd 3/23/07 8:53 AM Page 19 2 The Strange Paradox of Behavioral Finance “Neoclassical Theory Is a Theory of Sharks” ehavioral Finance argues that most investors make decisions and choices based upon an inability, or unwillingness, to analyze situations in the cool, detached, and fully informed manner of the investors in the Capital Asset Pricing Model or the Efficient Market Hypothesis.